See the two major reasons Adeleke may lose the Osun poll in July

Barely three months to Osun gubernatorial poll, Mr. Ademola Adeleke can’t be sure of victory. There are reasons that can make him lose the election for the second time in a row. He lost the election in 2018 when he faced Mr. Adegboyega Oyetola, the incumbent governor.

The 2018 PDP primary election which produced Ademola Adeleke wasn’t as controversial as the latest one. He wanted to build on his structure in the party. However, Mr. Dotun Babayemi was on ground to challenge him.

The Peoples Democratic Party would go to the 2022 election as a divided entity. The party has not yet reconciled all forces within the party after the primary election. Mr Dotun Babayemi insists that he is the candidate of the PDP.
His own faction conducted a primary election at the WOCDIF Event Center in the state capital. He won the primary even though the National Working Committee and the Independent National Electoral Commission identified Ademola Adeleke.

Mr. Adeleke’s victory is still being challenged at the court. He may not win at the court. Even if he does, it may be too late. The preparation wouldn’t be enough. Note that the litigation is enough a challenge or distraction for him.
At the end of the day, if he wins at the court, he may not win the main election due to the legal tussle.

The second reason is that it has always been tough or even impossible to beat an incumbent. There are just few instances whereby the incumbent loses reelection bid. Adegboyega Oyetola has not relented and his emergence as the APC candidate was superb.

To further boost his chances for the second time, the new national secretary of the APC is from Osun State. Both Iyiola Omisore and the national chairman Abdullahi Adamu have a role to play in Osun State.

Interestingly, Mr. Iyiola Omisore is very strong at the four local government areas in Ife Federal Constituency. He can seriously help Mr. Adegboyega Oyetola to beat Ademola Adeleke in Ife North, Ife Central, Ife East and Ife South local government areas.

The permutation on ground doesn’t favour Mr. Ademola Adeleke in any way. The system in the PDP is so fragile to boost his chances. And the All Progressives Congress is growing rather sporadically in the state.